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I'm not a financial advisor nor a broker/dealer. I neither provide financial advice, nor make investment recommendations. Nothing you read on this website constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or promotion of any particular security, transaction, or investment.
I may at times discuss trades or trade setups, but this is meant to be purely a discussion point for entertainment and educational purposes only.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

October 11th Update

Looking for new lows in SPY and USO.

SPY

I revised my previous count, since I see a potential a-b-c formation completing on the hourly chart  (It's barely visible on the daily chart).  Minute wave ((c)) appears to be an ending diagonal formation.  Even if this labeling is correct, this could still easily turn into a corrective combination after a significant correction.  I still think the best course of action is to look for a short entry and re-evaluate near the bottom of the range.  My entry will be a downside breach of minuette wave (iv), or 118.60.

USO

Similarly, I think USO could be completing it's advance.  Unlike SPY, this move up looks impulsive.  There's a distinct difference in their wave patterns, however.  I think this impulse wave up since 10/4 could be a C-wave in an expanded flat (a flat where the B-Wave makes a new price low).  In other words, minute wave ((iii)) bottomed on 9/27 in this scenario, and the new 10/4 low was actually minuette wave (b) of an (a)-(b)-(c) correction.

The chart below is of crude futures.  I'm looking for a move below 32.50 on the USO, which I am proposing for micro wave ((4)) of subminutte 4 of minuette wave (c).

Posted by Waverunner (FractalTrader) at 9:18 AM

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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))