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Tuesday, November 8, 2011

November 8th Update

Grinding higher, but rally coming to an end.

This rally coming off the November 1 low has been nothing short of spectacular.  It's still a second wave, however in my estimation, which means there should not be new highs. Additionally, the October 27th high was just the end of a retracement of the move down from the May 2nd high.  And finally, the May 2nd high was just the end of a retracement of the scary bear market that started in October of 2007.

What all this means is that we are still in a secular bear market, and the last vestiges of hope are about to be extinguished as the short term bullish bear market rally exhausts itself, and the downtrend resumes.

The "when" is always the tricky part, but it could be as soon as November 11th.

Below is a 4H chart showing a completing ending diagonal formation. We are currently in the third wave of five in the formation.

My ultimate target, assuming the third wave ends here, is 1281 on the E-Mini's.

Posted by Waverunner (FractalTrader) at 11:57 AM

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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))