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I'm not a financial advisor nor a broker/dealer. I neither provide financial advice, nor make investment recommendations. Nothing you read on this website constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or promotion of any particular security, transaction, or investment.
I may at times discuss trades or trade setups, but this is meant to be purely a discussion point for entertainment and educational purposes only.

Friday, December 30, 2011

December 30th Update

Last trading day of the year.

I'm now completely flat.  I exited silver Wednesday morning with a nice profit, making it the best trade of the year for me. 
I exited crude this morning at a small, but negligible loss.  I got out of crude due to a change in my view of the wave count, in addition to recent price action which I will go over now.

I previously had the intermediate wave (4) low at 94.77 on 11/25, making the move up to 102.59 on 12/5 an ending diagonal (5) that was truncated.  The move down to 92.52 on 12/16 formed another triangle, which could have been intermediate wave (1) down beginning a large correction.
If you look at the picture below, I have shown in red another interpretation that I now favor which is short term more bullish for crude.   The red lines trace out a three-wave move lower, with a three-wave B and a diagonal wave C.  In this count, the 12/16 low is where intermediate wave (4) actually ends.


Interestingly, we have already had a five-wave move off the 12/16 low on the hourly chart (below).  This has failed to make a new price extreme on the upside(see daily chart above), however, so I think it's likely we could have an extended fifth, despite the fact that (3) was also extended.   Because of the upside potential this presents, I exited all my short positions to see how things play out. 

Posted by Waverunner (FractalTrader) at 8:34 AM

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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))