None of the corrections going back to the 2000 tech crash are in five waves, so the downside is unfolding in corrective mode, and the correction appears to be complex, ((W))-((X))-((Y))-((X))-((Z)). Similarly, not of the upside rallies including this recent one, are unfolding in five waves. Therefore, new lows are expected.My primary count is on the chart, and after ((Z)) is complete, a new bull market should unfold.
An alternate count, not shown, has this entire correction going back to 2000 as a diagonal A-wave of one higher degree, which would be labeled ((i))-((ii))-((iii))-((iv))-((v)) each composed of the component a-b-c subwaves shown. The difference between the two labels is subtle, as they are both composed of a-b-c component waves, but the implications are different. The former is the end of a correction, and the latter is merely the beginning of one.
To know which count will ultimately be correct, we will need to watch the ensuing rally and determine whether it is unfolding in impulsive (new bull market) or corrective (a B-Wave) mode.
My preferred count (which seems bearish enough, frankly) is shown on the chart, along with tentative downside targets based on the fibonacci relationships to ((W)) and ((W))-((Y)).
In any case, before the correction begins, we need to complete c up on the monthly, (5) up on the weekly, and 5 up on the daily.
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