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Sunday, May 6, 2012

South Korea looking bearish

My scans have been warning me about EWY, which is the ETF representing South Korea.



The waves are telling me that EWY has begun a new bear market of likely primary degree.

Five waves down of intermediate degree completed in October of last year (see the weekly chart), and a second wave up followed which appears to be completed as of the beginning of April.  Since that time, there is another five waves down of minute degree  completing on the daily chart, followed by a minute wave ((ii)) which completed on 4/30.  Now as we go to the hourly time frame we have five waves down of subminuette degree which should be completing in the next day or so.  This new impulse wave should mark the beginning of a third wave of minute degree, which will ultimately complete larger and larger degree waves until primary wave III is complete.

On a separate topic, I wanted to point out some interesting things about these charts, and why ultimate it's very difficult for charting software to count waves properly.  If you notice on the monthy chart, the downturn starting in May of 2011 looked like three waves.  You need to look at the daily chart to see that it's actually five.  Similarly, intermediate wave (2) on the weekly is not a simple a-b-c and it is necessary to drill down to the daily time frame to see what's going on. 
Posted by Waverunner (FractalTrader) at 2:42 PM

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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))