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I'm not a financial advisor nor a broker/dealer. I neither provide financial advice, nor make investment recommendations. Nothing you read on this website constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or promotion of any particular security, transaction, or investment.
I may at times discuss trades or trade setups, but this is meant to be purely a discussion point for entertainment and educational purposes only.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Scratch my prior post, final minute wave down

We made too much downside progress today for a triangle on the minuette time frame (see earlier posts of hourly charts).  The ((b)) wave up on the minuette time frame (hourly - lower) ended being just a simple a-b-c up, with a complex b.
This is unfortunately the mother of all confusing moves coinciding.

We have what looks like an ending diagonal for ((c)) down on the minuette chart, which is a series of a-b-c's.  On top of that we are completing E on the daily chart, which is itself part of an a-b-c leg of a triangle.

All I can say about all this is that fourth waves are very difficult to time, for this very reason.  It is sometimes just better to remain on the sidelines when you are unable to execute proper trading discipline.

Looking down at the chart, we hit the area where ((c)) == ((a)), on the minute chart (daily -upper), but on the minuette time frame, we do not yet have five waves.  Additionally, on the minuette chart, the momentum converges with the chart, which gives increased likelihood of this being a third wave rather than a  fifth of ((c)) down.  The next likely target is 161.8% at 128.02 on the SPY, or around 1267.54 on the /ES.

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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))