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Saturday, July 16, 2011

Weekend Review

The market stayed in a range expiration week.  Choppy sideways is always corrective.  It is unclear at this point whether we are in a sideways wave ii on the minuette time frame, or whether (b) is still in progress and making a more complex pattern.  Wave ii will be ruled out with a move above 1328 in the /ES in the coming days.  Alternatively, wave ii will be validated if we get the wave iii impulse down, ie. 5 waves, probably the longest, greatest momentum.  Momentum, of course, is doing nothing in all this chop.
I've also show an alternate count for (b) that takes the form of a contracting triangle.  If this alternate count happens, then we will have several more days of this choppy sideways behavior.
Either way, we still need the (c) wave so more selling will be coming before we can get new highs.  A good target area for (c) is between 128 and 130 on the SPY.

Posted by Waverunner (FractalTrader) at 6:56 AM

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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))