Disclaimer

I'm not a financial advisor nor a broker/dealer. I neither provide financial advice, nor make investment recommendations. Nothing you read on this website constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or promotion of any particular security, transaction, or investment.
I may at times discuss trades or trade setups, but this is meant to be purely a discussion point for entertainment and educational purposes only.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Thursday Recap

After an rocky start this morning with IWM going against me, I quickly modified my position and ended up long.
The minuette chart, which I did not give enough weight to yesterday, showed no evidence of a ((B)) or ((C)) wave, until today.  My prior assumption, based on the subminuette chart, was that the rally was simply too sharp for the subdivisions to show on the higher time frame.  This was definitely a case of me seeing what I wanted to see.  After the overnight activity, and the morning rally, it was clear that the prior rally was just an ((A)) wave, and we were starting ((C)) with this morning's rally.  I jumped on board with the new count.

Now if we go back to the subminuette chart of the IWM (lower), we can see how the ((C)) wave will break down.  I currently only count three completed waves, with iii of c being an extension.  We are in a wave iv, and still need the fifth wave, and I'm willing to hold my long IWM position overnight and attempt to close out in the morning.  Furthermore, if we can get five waves down, and three waves up on the subminuette chart after ((C)) appears to be completed tomorrow, I'll re-establish the short position I put on yesterday.

Silver is in a range, on the close only chart, it's basically an inside day, which works out fine for the position I took this morning.  As long as we do not make new weekly highs, I'll stay with this position.


It looks like I'll have some material for my new "Bad Calls" page, which I just created.  I'll add that content this weekend.

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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))