GDX

I believe the long term trend in GDX is down.  Nevertheless, I'm definitely glad I got out of my short position, because this has been a violent bear market rally the last couple of days.

After the completion of an a-b-c pattern on the upside (at this point, we might have a subminuette degree a up completed, but it's too soon to be sure), I'll look for signs of a reversal and consider getting short again.

Silver

Silver futures have done the unthinkable, and have taken out the 12/2 highs of 33.74.

We also appear to have completed the middle section of a third wave on the upside.  Due to the extreme bullish wave patterns and momentum in evidence since the 12/29 bottom, I have no choice but to factor in an intermediate term bullish scenario for silver.   What I'm looking for here is a correction to the prior fourth wave of one lesser degree near 31.52 on 1/25.  When price gets there, momentum should provide some clues as to whether we will head back up to new highs.

S&P 500

It's possible we put in an intermediate term top at today's high.

Confirmation will come when price trades below 1301.5 in the futures (the prior fourth wave of lesser degree).
I haven't decided whether I want to attempt a trade here.  The problem is the higher degree wave count is very uncertain.  My working theory is that we just completed the C wave of an A-B-C-D-E triangle.  That picture will take time to clarify, however.  If it's true, it means the next several months will be sideways to up on the weekly charts.


Crude

Crude oil futures are looking quite bullish here since 1/22 with a (i)-(ii), i-ii setup.  A thrust to new highs on higher momentum into subminuette degree iii will confirm the bullish outlook.

I'm long via the bullish USO 38/40 VERTICAL CALL SPREAD.