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Thursday, January 12, 2012

Intraday - GDX made a new short term high

GDX made a new weekly high this morning, but based on the wave count, I have no reason to panic yet.

I've marked on the chart where I got short.  From Tuesday's high, it came down in a three wave corrective pattern, rather than the five wave pattern I was expecting.  It also remained within the linear regression channel boundaries.  Price then moved back up in another three wave corrective pattern, again remaining within the channel.   
Notice that the momentum remains depressed despite the new high.  This reinforces my wave count. 
If my wave count is correct, we completed a (w)-(x)-(y)-(x)-(z) corrective combination, which should be the limit.
I'm looking for price to break out of the channel to the downside from here. 

I'm looking for three things to confirm my downside bet. 
  1. A breach of the prior (x) at 53.67.
  2. The linear regression channel should start to change slope downward.
  3. We should get a five wave decline (defining the larger trend is now down).
Posted by Waverunner (FractalTrader) at 8:16 AM

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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))