January 10th Update

S&P 500

Markets probably hit a short term top today, but there is a probability that the market rally is not over.






My assumption at this point is that we are in a corrective triangle formation.

1. If the three wave move higher from 11/25 to 12/7 is indeed a C wave, then it will be the shortest wave, which would be unusual.
2. The 78.6% retracement level of the entire five wave decline from May 2nd is at 1309, which we have not yet hit.

Most likely, the C wave is a complex wave and just peaked today.  We still need D down and E up before we roll over and plummet to new lows.

If we take out B at 1147 on the next correction, all bets are off and it's time to look for short entries.

Crude

The form the final fifth wave (5) is taking in crude is not clear.   It could be an ending diagonal fifth, or it could be a simple five wave impulse.

We'll know for sure soon enough as the proposed wave iv develops.  Before that happens, we need a completed iii.  Either way, intermediate term is bullish for crude.

Silver

I got short silver today, as I've already mentioned in prior posts.  Looking at the chart below, you can see why.

Here's a list of bearish signals for silver:

1. It has rallied up to the exact level of the fourth wave of one lesser degree (or in other words the fourth wave of the third wave down) at 30.283. 
2. It has hit the top of the linear regression channel on the daily chart once again.
3. Momentum has stayed bearish on the daily chart, remaining below the zero line.

Silver is destined to roll over again soon.

GDX

I'm also short GDX as of this morning. 

The linear regression channel has expanded due to the stretched out nature of iv of 3, but note that this correction took a (w)-(x)-(y) combination, where (y) is 78.6% of (w) at today's high.  Also notice that much like silver, momentum was never able to get out of negative territory.  I feel this is a good area for a turning point back down.