January 6th Update

GDX

I might as well talk about GDX first.  Basically, there was no trade to take today.  On Wednesday, price hit the upper linear regression channel on both the 4H and Daily time frames.  That was when I was alerted to the short opportunity.   Do to the momentum internals, however, I feel like it's possible it could run up to the top of the channel one more time before rolling over.

I will remain on the sidlines until one of two things happens:

1. We run up to the top of the channel on the 4H chart on lower relative momentum (compared to the last upper channel touch/cross).
2. We pierce the last significant price support (at 52.75) on the 4H chart.  Basically, if we starting seeing lower lows, then we can be more confident in a trend change.

As you can see, price neither made significant new highs or lows during today's trading.   It is also notable that we are now sitting on the bottom channel line on the 4H chart, which may provide support.

All that being said, this could be a fun trade, if it ever manifests.  We'll just have to see what happens next week.

Silver

/SI is chopping around much like GDX.  This isn't too surprising considering the precious metal connection, they're like distant cousins.

You can see the linear regression channel on the 4H chart has now turned down.  If you consider that it is potentially capturing two fourth waves ( iv of ((3)), and ((4)) of c ), it is explainable.  Still, this sideways action is starting to distort the wave beyond an allowable good wave form (refer to Prechter's Elliott Wave Principal) for an impulse wave.  I want to see a breakout soon, one way or the other before I even consider putting capital to work. 
By the way, this is another case where momentum is bullish, as it holds above the zero line. 
Still, my wave count could be wrong.  An alternate count for the prior rally starting on 12/29 could be a double zigzag a-b-c-(x)-a-b-c, or in other words (w)-(x)-(y).  I still don't like that count, as it does not account for all the sideways corrective action on the right-hand side of the chart.  The fourth waves seem to fit the chart much nicer, so that remains my view for now.
Currently, I have no skin in this game, so I can just curiously watch until an opportunity presents itself.

Crude

Take everything I just said about silver above, and pretty much verbatim can be said about the 4H crude chart.

The only real difference with crude lies in the bigger picture view, which is far more bullish than for silver.  Crude has higher to go on the daily and weekly charts, in my opinion, but it will do it in a very choppy fashion.  For people that like volatile markets, crude should be fun in 2012.

S&P 500

Equities have been pretty much going sideways too, with a slight upward bias on the 4H time frame.

Both momentum and price action point higher here in the short term. 

Longer term is a bit more of an issue, as the wave count is not very clear to me on daily and weekly time frames.

Let's take a look a the daily for a minute, however.

 First let's consider the facts.

1. It is possible that we have a five wave impulse down from May 2.  This possibility is too important to discount.  
2. All of the upward action from the October lows seems to be three wave corrective mode in nature, implying that the larger trend (down) will resume at some point.
3. We are in the middle of a rising linear regression channel on the daily time frame.
4. The VIX has be signaling bullish trader sentiment for a couple weeks now. 

Summary,  I won't fight this uptrend short term, but I still feel like the larger trend is down.  The safer choice here is to wait for the linear regression channel to turn down, and look for a good short entry on a rebound rally.