January 18th Update

Crude

Boy, oh Boy...

For whatever reason, these movements have made it really tough for me to recognize the patterns lately.   Every time I think I have my finger on the pulse, my count gets whacked.
In any case, I think I may finally have a working count here on both intra-day and daily time frames.

Let's start with the intra-day chart.

Working from the left hand side, 12/27 is where the prior bullish impulse wave up ended, that I'm labeling minor degree wave 1.  We have three waves down, followed by three waves up making a new high, followed by another three waves down.  I have decided these are all part of the same correction, and form a minute degree ((w))-((x))-((y)) correction for minor wave 2 down, which ends just shy of the 50% retracement of minor wave 1 (follow the dashed green line). 

My prior post on crude, where I was calling for a continued move lower was invalidated by a five wave impulse move higher from Friday morning through Tuesday at 8pm.  In other words, the next leg up is now officially underway.

Now to put these moves in perspective, next is the daily chart.

As you can see, intermediate wave (4) ended on 12/17.  We then have a minor wave 1 up, followed by a very complex minor wave 2 ending on 1/13 which I discussed in detail above.  On the right edge, we have minute wave ((i)) of minor wave 3 up. 

Summary:  Based on all this analysis, I'm now finally getting short term interested in crude, from the long side.  As the intra-day chart shows, I probably already missed the chance to get long at minute wave ((ii)) of minor wave 3 which seems to have reversed just shy of the 50% retracement of ((i)).   The next opportunity is as close as possible to the termination of minor wave 1 at 101.43.  The reason, of course, is that minute wave ((iii)) will likely be the longest wave, and ((iv)) cannot enter the territory of ((i)).
As always, I'll play this via options on the USO.

Silver

Nothing has changed with my intra-day view, so please see my prior post.  I will show a daily picture, however.

You can see where I'm calling minor wave 4 complete, just above the prior fourth wave of one lesser degree.  It's also notable, that this is just shy of the 61.8% retracement of the third wave, which is very unusual.  Most fourth waves retrace 38.6% and sometimes 50%, but rarely reach the 61.8% area.  These things together all make a very compelling argument that the next leg down will begin in earnest soon.

Equites (/ES)

The market continues to grind higher.  My best guess is that we'll reach some kind of short term top after this minuette degree wave (c) completes.  I say "guess" because I consider my confidence level to be pretty weak on the labeling of this chart in general.

Unlike minuette wave (a) which was basically just a singular line, alternation suggests that minuette wave (c) will likely show very definable five wave subdivisions.  This is already evident.

In any case, after some kind of correction, I expect another rally intermediate term.  I really don't think this is over yet, despite my bearish long term views.  In Elliott terms, I think this is a complex C-wave in a large scale triangle correction, which means we still need D and E.  I think this could drag out for months.  I suppose this is good in the sense that we can put off some bad economic times for a while longer.