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Friday, August 26, 2011

2 - 3 more weeks of upside for silver

Silver is on track to complete subminette wave (iii) of ((v)) of its ending diagonal minor wave C of intermediate wave (B).

The key levels we need to watch for to ensure this count is legitimate:

  1. We want /SI to trade higher to the 43.303 - 43.689 area to complete (iii).  The former is the 61.8% retracement of prior wave (i), the latter is where it meets the upper diagonal line extending from ((iii)). Price may exceed the boundary by a small margin.
  2. We want /SI to reverse and trade back down to the lower boundary of the triangle.  I have a target of 39.977 for wave (iv), which is where (iv) will be 61.8% of wave (ii) from wave (iii)'s projected termination.  It cannot exceed the low of (ii) at 38.826.  If it does, this count is invalidated, and the larger degree downturn will likely be underway, so we'll want to watch momentum and look for a short entry. 
  3. We'll want yet another trade back up to the upper boundary to complete wave (v) of ((v)) of  C of  (B).  At this point we should be in the latter half of the 2nd week of September, or into the 3rd week.  This will likely carry us through the September options expiration.
In summary, silver should grind higher in a choppy fashion until the 3rd week of September, before major selling begins.

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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))