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Thursday, August 11, 2011

S&P range-bound

We appear to be in fourth wave up.  It remains to be seen what degree this is.  It could be a subminuette degree wave iv of 3, or a minor wave 4.  What that means is we should get another low before we get a better rally to play.   Specifically, I'll be watching for a new low on lower relative momentum, and a move above the wave iv high or five waves up on the lower time frame.


The other thing I found interesting, is how the market reversed on a closing basis right on the red line that I had on the chart.
I couldn't even remember why I drew that line, and had to expand the chart to look back.  That was the top of intermediate wave (1) up.  A very important level, a level that was violated intra-day.  This was the nail in the coffin of the prior uptrend.


Update: Friday 1:11PM

After looking at the Russell small cap index, which has more clearly defined waves on the daily chart, my leaning is toward a subminuette degree wave ((iv)) of minor wave 3.  We are right around the 38% retracement level, so I would expect this rally to exhaust itself soon.


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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))