We appear to be in fourth wave up. It remains to be seen what degree this is. It could be a subminuette degree wave iv of 3, or a minor wave 4. What that means is we should get another low before we get a better rally to play. Specifically, I'll be watching for a new low on lower relative momentum, and a move above the wave iv high or five waves up on the lower time frame.
The other thing I found interesting, is how the market reversed on a closing basis right on the red line that I had on the chart.
I couldn't even remember why I drew that line, and had to expand the chart to look back. That was the top of intermediate wave (1) up. A very important level, a level that was violated intra-day. This was the nail in the coffin of the prior uptrend.
Update: Friday 1:11PM
After looking at the Russell small cap index, which has more clearly defined waves on the daily chart, my leaning is toward a subminuette degree wave ((iv)) of minor wave 3. We are right around the 38% retracement level, so I would expect this rally to exhaust itself soon.
Disclaimer
I'm not a financial advisor nor a broker/dealer. I neither provide financial advice, nor make investment recommendations. Nothing you read on this website constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or promotion of any particular security, transaction, or investment.
I may at times discuss trades or trade setups, but this is meant to be purely a discussion point for entertainment and educational purposes only.
I may at times discuss trades or trade setups, but this is meant to be purely a discussion point for entertainment and educational purposes only.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
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Notation
| Wave Degree | Motive | Corrective |
| Grand Supercycle | ((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V)) | ((a)) ((b)) ((c)) |
| Supercycle | (I) (II) (III) (IV) (V) | (a) (b) (c) |
| Cycle | I II III IV V | a b c |
| Primary | ((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5)) | ((A)) ((B)) ((C)) |
| Intermediate | (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) | (A) (B) (C) |
| Minor | 1 2 3 4 5 | A B C |
| Minute | ((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v)) | ((a)) ((b)) ((c)) |
| Minuette | (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) | (a) (b) (c) |
| Subminuette | i ii iii iv v | a b c |
| Micro | ((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5)) | ((A)) ((B)) ((C)) |



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