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Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Updated silver count

Silver continues to frustrate to the upside.   My prior counts were invalidated by today's price action. 
Having said that, I will be keeping my short position.  The reason why is as follows.
Looking at the new preferred count on the minuette chart, we had an ((a))-((b))-((c)) down, followed by three waves up, which I have labeled ((a)).  That high was just exceeded today intraday.  Next we had three waves down which takes silver to a new low on 8/10, which I have labeled (a)
So basically what happed is an ((a))-((b))-((c)) down followed by an ((a))-((b))-((c)) up, where ((b)) is both a barrier triangle, and a running triangle (makes a new price low). 
The ((c)) wave should now unfold into five waves. 
Looking at the lower chart, we see several more three wave moves heading higher, so we have a likely ending diagonal.  My preferred count has us in the third wave of the ending diagonal, which appears to be extending.
In summary, prices will be grinding higher in a choppy up and down fashion over the next few days, but should not exceed my prior stop loss at 40.15 on the SLV, or 42.30 on the /SI futures.

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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))