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I'm not a financial advisor nor a broker/dealer. I neither provide financial advice, nor make investment recommendations. Nothing you read on this website constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or promotion of any particular security, transaction, or investment.
I may at times discuss trades or trade setups, but this is meant to be purely a discussion point for entertainment and educational purposes only.

Friday, August 5, 2011

New SPY charts posted

I've posted updated longer term charts on the bigger picture page.
Since my view has changed, or rather, the market changed it for me, it's time to put it all together.
Now lets talk about what happened this week.   As I posted previously, all I saw on the daily and hourly charts were a-b-c structures, leading me to believe we were in a corrective phase, rather than starting a large higher degree downward move.   When the floor fell out this week, I realized I was wrong, but still needed to understand the recent activity and how it all fit together.  As it turns out, I think we were in a triangle, but rather than a fourth wave triangle preparing for a final fifth, we were in a diagonal fifth wave, otherwise known as an ending diagonal.  This explains the a-b-c structures perfectly.
Below I've shown how it looks on weekly and daily time frames.
I should note that upon closer examination, we appear to be in an impulse wave down, and are still completing the third wave.  I'll zoom in Monday morning to the intraday futures to see where it looks like we are in this impulse down.
 

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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))