Disclaimer

I'm not a financial advisor nor a broker/dealer. I neither provide financial advice, nor make investment recommendations. Nothing you read on this website constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or promotion of any particular security, transaction, or investment.
I may at times discuss trades or trade setups, but this is meant to be purely a discussion point for entertainment and educational purposes only.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

SPY still looking like a triangle, silver poised for re-short

The level of downside we have achieved with this push lower lends some weight to the case that this might be the start of a higher degree downtrend.  I have a couple problems with that view.  One, we have yet to reach levels that invalidate a fourth wave, but more importantly, I just can't come to any sort of count that implies impulse.  All I see are 3 wave A-B-C type moves on the minute time frame.  Additionally, the slope of the upper line going back to May highs is downward sloping, which tends to imply that we'll see another push higher.

I'm staying with the triangle thesis, until that count is invalidated.  We should know soon, as the count on the minuette timeframe seems to be coming to a conclusion.



In other news, look at silver.  It just cratered mid-day.  That ((c)) wave, if that's what it was, was extremely short.  My alert went off, and I see we have five waves down on the subminuette chart. I'm praying for a rally retracement into the close so I can get back into my short position.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))