Disclaimer

I'm not a financial advisor nor a broker/dealer. I neither provide financial advice, nor make investment recommendations. Nothing you read on this website constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or promotion of any particular security, transaction, or investment.
I may at times discuss trades or trade setups, but this is meant to be purely a discussion point for entertainment and educational purposes only.

Monday, September 12, 2011

bear market bounce in Oil

Minuette wave (i) down is complete.  The subminuette (1H - lower chart, or 30min) waves are pretty much a mess.
There are three important pieces of evidence, however:
  1. The wave count on the 4H chart(upper), is a clear five waves.
  2. The overnight low on the subminuette chart shows a momentum divergence (ie lower price low, higher momentum low), consistent with a fifth wave.
  3. The bounce this morning is appears to be a deep retracement, consistent with a second wave
I'll be looking at the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the prior five wave decline, or the likely termination for (ii) up, to use this bounce to buy back the short leg of my bear verticals.  I'll also want to see a completed A-B-C at subminuette degree.  The stop will remain at the high at 35.14.

Posted by Waverunner (FractalTrader) at 7:59 AM

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))