USO
Crude is down three waves at subminuette degree, and that is likely where it will remain until tomorrow. Momentum on the lower chart appears to confirm a third wave count, which subdivides into five waves with an extended fifth. From an Elliott Wave perspective, If this selling is real, we will want to see another leg down.
Also, on the upper chart, we broke out of the triangle connecting subminuette degree waves b and d. The real confirmation will be a break of the low of wave d.
Looking at the Ichimoku chart, the signal line is still over the base line on the daily chart (left), but price ran right into cloud resistance and bounced off hard in a confirmed bear trend. Looking at the intra-day chart (right), the signal line crossed under the base line, prices have now fallen below the intra day cloud, and the lagging line is below price. We have three bearish signals. For confirmation, we'll want to see cloud resistance hold, and start falling.
SLV
As you can see from the chart below, I have plenty of confusion with regard to the proper count at both minute and minuette degree. On the daily chart (upper), it's possible intermediate degree (B) completed back on 8/22. Certainly momentum seems to favor the August 4th high being a minute wave ((iii)). The problem is that we didn't get a clear five wave break out of the triangle after the proposed minute degree ((v)) on 8/22. Rather, we got what could be interpreted as a minuette degree (a)-(b)-(c). Or the proposed minuette degree (c) could actually be a subminuette degree i of iii down taking the form of a leading diagonal. Leading diagonals are very rare, which is why I'm so hesitant to jump on this count. Momentum is certainly not very convincing on the down side at either time frame.
Basically, from an Elliott perspective, I want to see the market show its hand here. It will either slow down and reverse back up, or the floor will drop out. I will have missed the best entry, but at the same time, I'm tired of getting whipped around by silver.
Looking at Ichimoku, price on the daily chart (left) broke back over the cloud, but the cloud is starting to flatten, and the signal line crossed over the base line today. On the 4H chart (right) we have a confirmed downtrend in progress. We'll want to watch how price reacts which it trades back up to the cloud resistance. It might be worthwhile to try short at that time.
Disclaimer
I'm not a financial advisor nor a broker/dealer. I neither provide financial advice, nor make investment recommendations. Nothing you read on this website constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or promotion of any particular security, transaction, or investment.
I may at times discuss trades or trade setups, but this is meant to be purely a discussion point for entertainment and educational purposes only.
I may at times discuss trades or trade setups, but this is meant to be purely a discussion point for entertainment and educational purposes only.
Monday, September 19, 2011
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Notation
| Wave Degree | Motive | Corrective |
| Grand Supercycle | ((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V)) | ((a)) ((b)) ((c)) |
| Supercycle | (I) (II) (III) (IV) (V) | (a) (b) (c) |
| Cycle | I II III IV V | a b c |
| Primary | ((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5)) | ((A)) ((B)) ((C)) |
| Intermediate | (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) | (A) (B) (C) |
| Minor | 1 2 3 4 5 | A B C |
| Minute | ((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v)) | ((a)) ((b)) ((c)) |
| Minuette | (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) | (a) (b) (c) |
| Subminuette | i ii iii iv v | a b c |
| Micro | ((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5)) | ((A)) ((B)) ((C)) |




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