Disclaimer

I'm not a financial advisor nor a broker/dealer. I neither provide financial advice, nor make investment recommendations. Nothing you read on this website constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or promotion of any particular security, transaction, or investment.
I may at times discuss trades or trade setups, but this is meant to be purely a discussion point for entertainment and educational purposes only.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Morning crude update part IV

This morning we broke down through the lower boundary of proposed triangle I was drawing  at micro degree earlier this morning.  That was the first warning sign.  Secondly, I started to see five wave moves down and three wave rallies.  What those things tell me is the new trend may be down.

We are still within the triangle boundaries at minuette degree.  Within that context, I started to relabel things.
Starting with a 4H chart, I redrew it with the assumption that the final wave e concluded at 9am on Wednesday.  If this is the case, the good news is that we haven't yet broken out of the triangle, so there's plenty of time to get short before the plunge.


Now we zoom in and look at a 30min chart.  What I see in the chart below is potentially a series of first and second waves.  In Elliott Wave analysis this usually points to a precursor to a dramatic move. 


I decided to go ahead and get short again.
Bearish VERTICAL: NOV11 USO 34-31 PUT

It's 3 points wide and slightly out of the money, with volatility relatively low, so it should provide some cushion should price consolidate a bit more next week or go against me.  At the same time, should price break out of the triangle profit should be better than a spread with one or two points wide.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))