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Monday, September 12, 2011

USO and Silver update

Quickly regarding my prior post on USO, my 61.8% target for today's bounce was hit, and I now have uncapped puts in the USO, with a stop at the recent high of 35.14. 

Regarding silver,  even today's bearish price action is not enough to get me short.  The wave structure is very unclear at the minuette and subminuette degrees, so I'm stepping aside.  I think it's very possible that the triangle for minor wave C did complete a couple weeks prior, and that we now have a completed minuette wave (i) down.  On the lower chart, I also have minuette wave (ii) up marked, but I'm not certain that it's over, since the price action following (ii), marked with a rectangle,  is not clear yet.

Therefore, I will wait to see what develops.  I think a surprise final upside advance could be in order, but I suspect that the minute wave ((v)) highs of 44.286 in the /SI silver futures are safe.


Posted by Waverunner (FractalTrader) at 9:13 AM

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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))