September 22 update

SLV

Silver has definitely shown its hand, down 8% today.  Yesterday price traded back to cloud resistance and then dropped below the base line, which should have been where I got short.  Oh well, hind sight is always 20/20.  We still have a rising cloud on the daily, and a gap down today.  Given that 80% of gaps usually fill, a trade may yet manifest with some patience.  Putting this another way, the next leg of a larger degree correction, which now appears to have actually begun on 8/22 is confirmed.  The first wave of selling began back at the end of April, and pretty much happened all at once.   This correction will likely be larger, but unlike the first wave down, will have large counter-trend rallies along the way.   Now that we have confirmation of the intermediate term trend, we look for high probability opportunities to join it.

USO

Unlike silver, the intermediate trend in oil has been obvious.  It has been stair stepping down since April, never breaking cloud resistance.  We have a gap down this morning, and now both intermediate and short term pictures are bearish. 

Looking at the waves, we potentially have three waves down at subminuette degree.  Momentum is convergent on the 4H chart, which is consistent with a third.   Considering we're in a third of a third at minute degree, I'm expecting this selling to go much further.  That's at a high level, but if I see momentum divergence on the daily chart after a new price low, or the signal line cross back up over the base line, that'll be a signal to take profits and look for the next bounce to get short again.

US Equities
Looking at the waves for the US markets on the daily chart, we are definitely in a fifth wave down.  I have some uncertainty in my labeling regarding the sub waves.  The way I have it drawn below, this could be minute wave ((v)) of subminuette iii.  This would imply there is quite a bit further down to go before a decent bounce.   Or is this simply a fifth wave of subminuette degree?  There are huge implications to the degree of bounce that occurs when this selling is over.
If the ensuing bounce in the coming weeks is a 50% or 61.8% retracement of the entire bear market going back to say July 7th, accompanied by a return in bullish sentiment, then we will have a confirmed intermediate degree (1) down.  So from my perspective, it's too late to join the bear trend here.  It's better to wait for more clear patterns, and a better risk/reward opportunity.
 

 In hind sight, the waves have been pretty tough to read coming out of a triangle pattern, as we did.  I find it very interesting to go back and look at what Ichimoku charts were showing way back on July 29th.  The signal line crossed back down through the base line and price fell below a falling cloud on the daily chart with a confirmed sell signal.  We know what happened next.  That trade would have been good until at least 9/12.