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Tuesday, September 13, 2011

USO morning update

Yesterday, what I thought was a subminuette degree a-b-c was really a micro degree ((1))-((2))-((3)).  This is one of the problems with Elliott Wave analysis, as those wave structures can look the exact same.  A safer approach is generally to wait for a trade below the supposed fourth wave for confirmation.  This requires patience, and willingness to miss the top.  As you can see, this is often better than picking the top and watching the market keep going.  In my case, however, my risk was defined, and I was already in from a higher level.  As such, oil traded higher than I expected, but my stop of 35.14 was not exceeded.  In addition, the subminuette degree a-b-c now appears to be complete.  It's easier to see on the /CL futures 15min chart.
I've moved my stop to the high of minuette degree (ii) on the USO at 34.87.


Posted by Waverunner (FractalTrader) at 7:47 AM

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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))