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Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Oil update

In my September 26th update, I proposed that we were about to begin a minute degree wave ((v)) decline.   That was incorrect.  After yesterday's strong continuation rally, I had to go back and look at my counts.  I believe the 9/26 low was actually the completed minute wave ((iii)) down.  What threw me off was not seeing the final five wave move down, but I was on a 2D chart, and when I switched to 1D, it became clear.  The other issue on the USO chart was (v) of ((iii)) did not make a new low, as it did on the future.


We had a strong five wave move up that began on Monday (see the lower chart).  I think we are heading up for at minimum, a minuette degree (a)-(b)-(c)  zigzag correction for minute wave ((iv)), so we still need the rest of (b) down and (c) up.
That should terminate in the area of minuette wave (iv) or 36 on the USO, 91 on the /CL, give or take.
The point is, this is very manageable, and there was no reason to panic.  Having said that, I will likely flatten out when today's downside correction is over, which should wipe out most if not all of yesterday's gains.
I'll look for another entry higher.

Update 2:33pm
I'm flat - exited for a decent profit
Posted by Waverunner (FractalTrader) at 9:36 AM

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Notation


Wave DegreeMotiveCorrective
Grand Supercycle((I)) ((II)) ((III)) ((IV)) ((V))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Supercycle(I) (II) (III) (IV) (V)(a) (b) (c)
CycleI II III IV Va b c
Primary((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))
Intermediate(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)(A) (B) (C)
Minor1 2 3 4 5A B C
Minute((i)) ((ii)) ((iii)) ((iv)) ((v))((a)) ((b)) ((c))
Minuette(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v)(a) (b) (c)
Subminuettei ii iii iv va b c
Micro((1)) ((2)) ((3)) ((4)) ((5))((A)) ((B)) ((C))